Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 19.620174 21.259129 23.024110 25.075221 27.404844 29.982285 33.068680
2025-08-31 16.799535 19.015910 21.564508 24.747226 28.666442 33.404650 39.677927
2025-09-07 14.905505 17.425401 20.469701 24.491890 29.783461 36.687360 46.703777
2025-09-14 13.577864 16.281228 19.678489 24.380306 30.925265 40.064075 54.512716
2025-09-21 12.492666 15.284796 18.906572 24.114740 31.720935 42.996761 62.301200
2025-09-28 12.010572 14.996752 18.997557 24.985590 34.193820 48.786942 76.215932
2025-10-05 11.276331 14.289252 18.422736 24.797417 34.996706 52.041637 86.679551
2025-10-12 10.679722 13.713320 17.965262 24.705549 35.898924 55.590859 98.897730
2025-10-19 10.266302 13.356210 17.780664 24.993005 37.441770 60.577519 116.170966
2025-10-26 9.780325 12.856024 17.335541 24.803836 38.110172 64.014857 131.353981
2025-11-02 9.333914 12.381968 16.888901 24.557072 38.623607 67.232061 147.586355
2025-11-09 8.990453 12.037189 16.612040 24.560231 39.592220 71.633909 169.826132
2025-11-16 8.616080 11.631828 16.223281 24.353586 40.170415 75.422077 193.264662
2025-11-23 8.277823 11.263414 15.869457 24.176863 40.792135 79.521401 221.466672
2025-11-30 7.964176 10.915569 15.525017 23.982924 41.350803 83.643303 254.026353
2025-12-07 7.696274 10.624327 15.253344 23.895114 42.123028 88.582343 296.368220
2025-12-14 7.419425 10.304517 14.913058 23.645012 42.498069 92.545459 339.586888
2025-12-21 7.355304 10.319097 15.135958 24.494158 45.527607 105.546479 463.846674
2025-12-28 7.122066 10.048199 14.850125 24.312582 46.078524 110.916547 548.953976
2026-01-04 6.919477 9.817832 14.620987 24.223797 46.847517 117.381643 666.172368
2026-01-11 6.786593 9.695649 14.574376 24.503260 48.604072 128.270428 885.025202
2026-01-18 6.592794 9.463416 14.317530 24.319547 49.115888 134.644757 1088.658454
2026-01-25 6.402448 9.229269 14.044919 24.079805 49.443805 140.493827 1338.309063